Changchun High-tech (000661): The rapid growth of growth hormone superimposed on the settlement of the real estate sector pushed the company’s performance up to 74%
Investment Highlights Event: The company released its 2019 first quarter report: Realizing revenue17.75 ppm, a 72-year increase of 72.07%; realize net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.650,000 yuan, an increase of 73 in ten years.67%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies3.580,000 yuan, an increase of 96 in ten years.93%, exceeding expectations. Consumption upgrade combined with the company’s long-term market education promoted the rapid growth of growth hormone, driving the company’s pharmaceutical sector to grow rapidly: 2019Q1, the company’s pharmaceutical sector revenue growth rate was 44.16%, net profit growth rate was 62.15%.Since the company’s average revenue and deducted non-net profit in the first quarter of 2018 were contributed by the pharmaceutical sector, according to estimates, the revenue and net profit of the pharmaceutical sector in the first quarter of 2019 were 14 respectively.$ 8.8 billion and 2.9.5 billion.We believe that the rapid growth of the company’s pharmaceutical sector is mainly due to the rapid growth of growth hormone. The settlement of the real estate sector thickened the company’s performance, driving the company’s performance growth faster than expected: in the first quarter of 2018, the company’s real estate sector did not achieve settlement, and its contribution to the company’s net profit and income reached zero. In 2019Q1, considering the company’s pharmaceutical sector revenue and net profit, and removing the effects of non-recurring earnings, we estimate that the real estate sector revenue and net profit are 2 respectively.8.7 billion and about 63 million yuan.The shrinkage of the settlement of the real estate sector increased the company’s performance, driving the company’s performance growth faster than expected. Judging from the number of batches issued, the quarterly performance growth of the vaccine sector may gradually increase, and the long-term growth is still good: on the April 1, 2019 termination date of the vaccine sector, 100 grams of varicella vaccine, the company achieved 510,000 batches of chickenpox vaccine, compared with2018年 年一季度的139万支有所替代。Due to the slow progress of batch issuance, through grassroots research, we believe that the supply of chickenpox vaccine is considered to be obvious.With the next batch of chickenpox vaccine batches being issued, sales are coming to fruition.Considering the industry growth brought about by “one change to two changes” in the terminal market (we estimate that the growth rate is expected to exceed 深圳丝袜会所 25%), and overlapping market vacancies brought by the delisting of Changsheng Biological Products, the company as a leading company for chicken pox vaccine(The rate is 36%), and is expected to achieve rapid growth. Earnings forecast and investment rating: Without considering the consolidation of 30% equity of Jinsai Pharmaceutical, we expect the company to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 14 in 2019-2021.2.8 billion, 19.50 ppm and 25.83 ppm, an increase of 41 in ten years.8%, 36.6% and 32.5%; corresponding EPS is 8.39 yuan, 11.46 yuan and 15.At RMB 18, we judge that Kinsey will be able to maintain high-speed growth and continue to contribute to the company’s profits, driven by factors such as sinking channels and the gradual increase in the proportion of new products. Baike Biological gradually 深圳桑拿网 resumed domestic sales after the “vaccine incident”, while MaifengThe adjustment of the biological production process is completed, and it is expected to go out and expand, and contribute profits to the company.Therefore, we maintain our “Buy” rating. Risk Warning: Risk of industry changes, product promotion and sales are not up to expectations.