Intelligent Manufacturing Series Report 1: Estun (002747): Leading domestic robot company builds high walls

(1) The fast-rising domestic industrial robot leader.

Through independent research and development and outsourcing mergers and acquisitions to master core functional components such as motion control system controllers, servo systems, power industrial robots and complete sets of business, the proportion 杭州夜生活网 of robots and complete sets of business in 2015-2018 was 16 respectively.

36%, 31.

32%, 45.

45% and 50.

31%, a rapid increase; For research and development, the company has maintained R & D investment that accounts for about 10% of sales revenue for many years. In 2018, the revenue ratio of R & D investment was 11.

49%, the proportion of revenue and gross profit margin of research and development expenses are ahead of other domestic companies.

(2) Motion control experts saw the beginning, and multi-mode seized the market.

① “Building a high wall” grasps the core functional components of motion control.

The company completed the layout of the core functional components of the motion control system through independent research and development and acquisition: controller systems (controllers for motion control systems, acquisition of TRIO, the world’s top ten controller manufacturers), servo systems (actuators for motion control systems, autonomousR & D, servo motors, etc. are all self-produced) and reducer systems (transmission structure of motion control systems, automatic research and development of some models);The multiple business models of “equipment + solution” and “general market + segmented market” actively seize the market. From 2016 to 2018, the company’s industrial robots and complete sets of business grew at an alternate growth rate of 167.

09, 131.

75%, 50.

31%, far more than the domestic industrial robot sales growth rate of 34 in the same period.

3%, 68.

1%, 4.

At 6%, the company’s industrial robots and complete sets of business grew much faster than the industry, and the strategy logic of multiple models was gradually realized.

(3) The industry’s “material steepness” is “spring cold”, and the recovery is imminent.

① The pressure on the sales of industrial robots in China is mainly due to the downturn in the downstream applications (both of which account for more than 30%) of the two industrial robots, electronics and electronics.

② Be optimistic about the investment of 5G commercial-driven equipment. From the stage of 5G development, 5G will enter large-scale deployment in 2020. From the perspective of influence, 5G will have far-reaching impacts on various aspects such as autonomous driving, industrial automation, and 5G mobile phones.The commercialization of 5G will bring a new wave of smartphone replacements. Related organizations predict that the penetration rate of 5G mobile phones will be 0 in 2019.

9% will quickly rise to 21 in 2022.

1%, the volume of the entire smart phone will reverse the trend in 2020, and the remaining related electronic products will also enter a full-fledged update cycle.

We believe that “product updates, equipment first”, and electronic product updates will drive investment in the field of electronics. With the replacement of the bottom of the automotive industry chain in 2020, 南宁桑拿 sales of industrial robots will usher in recovery.

Profit forecast: The company’s net profit for 2019-2020 is expected to be 112.

26, 175.

73,269.

06 million yuan, corresponding to 68.

42, 43.

70, 28.

54 times, the first coverage given a “Buy rating.

“.
Risk warning: Manufacturing investment recovery is slower than expected; 5G commercial use is worse than expected; trade frictions are intensifying.