Milk Guard (603713): Steady and optimistic about the value-added space of scarce resources!
Incidents Milkway disclosed the 2018 annual report: the company achieved operating income17.
8.4 billion, an increase of 38 in ten years.
16%, achieving net profit attributable to mother 1.
3.2 billion, up 57 previously.
91%, realized deduction of non-net profit1.
3.6 billion, an increase of 58 previously.
As the volume of warehousing revenue increased and the gross profit margin increased, looking at the animal flow sector, the revenue of the company’s logistics sector increased by 32.
6%, reaching 15.
5 billion, the gross profit margin increased slightly by 0 in the last ten 北京夜网 years.
56 up to 20.
0%; revenue from the trading sector increased by 94.
8% reached 2.
3 billion, gross profit margin fell by 1 in ten years.
63 single to 4.
3%, the main business gross margin of 18.
0%, basically stable.
Among them: 1) Significant volume of warehousing, gross profit margin increased: through leasing + continuous delivery of own production capacity, the company’s warehousing revenue in 2018 increased by 95.
18%, gross margin increased by 4.
45 reached 46.
12%, gross margin 1.
4.9 billion, became the company’s business sub-item with the highest gross profit margin, the largest contribution of gross profit; 2) Freight forwarding business: the company’s freight forwarding revenue increased by 25.
47%, but gross margin decreased slightly by 2.
56 single to 15.
18%; 3) Transportation business: Revenue grew steadily 16.
90%, but gross margin decreased slightly by increasing labor costs3.
04 good to 9.
60%; 4) Transaction business: Chemical products trading revenue nearly doubled to 2.
2.6 billion, but gross margin fell.
Capacity expansion has been gradual, and scarce assets have helped boost profit margins. In 2018, the company’s capacity expansion was solid and steady.
0.8 billion increased to 3 at the end of the period.
2.1 billion, of which the largest increase was in buildings, transportation equipment and tank equipment.
According to the data in the company’s prospectus, Zhangjiagang Bus Logistics and Tongchuan Dingming, which were invested in 18 years, and Liaoning Dingming, which was to be invested in 19 years, replaced the hazardous chemical storage capacity. It is expected that the company’s proportion of warehouse space will increase.
After the Tianjin bombing in 2015, barriers to storage of hazardous chemicals and transportation resources increased, especially the warehouse rent level is much higher than ordinary chemical warehouses, and there is an upward trend. We believe that the company’s future storage capacity will continue to increase, covering the top fiveCustomer stable cooperation relationship (18 years ago, the top five customers accounted for 31% of revenue.
2%), which can maximize production capacity and increase quickly, so that assets can quickly release revenue; at the same time, the company’s logistics assets are connected to the individual customer resources in the market, and it can obtain higher gross profit levels with stronger premium capabilities.
Taking into account the increase in the proportion of own warehouses and the potential for rent increases of hazardous chemicals warehouses, we are optimistic about the steady growth of the company’s warehousing business gross margin.
Investment advice From the top down, the company’s industry is a typical large industry and small company. Historical supervision has gradually become stricter and the concentration has gradually increased. At the same time, considering the company itself, the company has a strong customer base. We believe that the company and the customer’sThe cooperation and promotion will be further deepened to achieve a breakthrough in the “production-based sales” model and realize the growth logic.
We maintain our 2019-2020 net profit forecasts as 1.98 and 2.
700 million, maintain BUY rating.
Risk warning: cooperation with customers exceeds expectations; expansion is weaker than expected; hazardous chemical logistics accidents